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劉思鳴 | 貨幣經濟學術沙龍第7期暨金融學院雙周論壇334期

[發布日期]:2021-05-05  [瀏覽次數]:

一、主題:Sovereign Default and Labor Market Dynamics

二、主講人:劉思鳴博士,上海財經大學金融學院助理教授。劉思鳴博士分別于美國印第安納大學布盧明頓分校和復旦大學取得經濟學博士和數學學士學位。主要研究領域為開放宏觀、國際金融、宏觀金融以及財政政策。他的部分工作論文正處于Journal of International Economics和Review of Economic Dynamic等國際一流經濟學期刊的返修階段。

三、時間&地點:2021年5月10日10:00-11:30,沙河校區學院樓3號樓127會議室

四、主持人:彭俞超副教授,金融學院學術交流部主任

五、內容簡介

Abstract: This paper investigates the interaction between labor market dynamics and sovereign debt risk. Countercyclical default risk and the limited ability to borrow during recessions renders the government a procyclical fiscal policy. The anticipation of higher tax rates in downturns discourages agents' participation in the labor market and creates prolonged unemployment. The slack labor market, in turn, aggravates the default risk and strengthens the fiscal procyclicality. Moreover, under the discretionary policy, a government does not internalize the dynamic-scratching effect of raising tax rates on employment, so it suffers a low level of job creation and high default incentives. In this environment, imposing commitment measures on tax rates such as fiscal covenant can stimulate job creation, improve debt sustainability, and lead to a significant welfare gain.

 



上一條:張宇 | 金融工程系seminar第15期暨金融學院雙周論壇335期 下一條:龍馬金融論壇●第四屆“金融風險與監管”學術研討會(2021)

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